Thursday, July 7, 2011

Europe lashes out over downgrades

Senior European officials lashed out at Moody’s on Wednesday, questioning the timing of the debt rating agency’s downgrade of Portuguese bonds this week and threatening new regulatory action against all three major rating agencies.

The high-profile criticism follows long-simmering European complaints about Moody’s and its two competitors, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, centring on whether they have improperly attempted to influence policy-making in the ongoing debt crisis.
 
The Portuguese downgrade – four notches to “junk” status – comes amidst a heated debate over how hard to push private owners of Greek debt to delay repayments from Athens. José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, questioned the timing, and said Moody’s was guilty of “mistakes and exaggerations”.
 
“I deeply regret the decision … and I regret it both in terms of its timing and its magnitude,” Mr Barroso said. “With all due respect to that specific rating agency, our institutions know Portugal a little bit better.”

On Tuesday, Angela Merkel, German chancellor, and François Baroin, French finance minister, sought to downplay Moody’s decision, saying it would not affect their decision-making.

But Mr Barroso’s comments, along with similar remarks Wednesday by Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, appeared a concerted change in tenor, with both men arguing that efforts to reduce the agencies’ power would gain momentum.

“We can’t understand the basis of this announcement,” Mr Schäuble said. “We have to break the oligopoly of the ratings agencies.”

(...) Rating agencies defended their decisions, with a Moody’s spokesman saying the agency’s continues “providing independent, objective assessments of credit risk on debt securities”. S&P said: “We are focused on our role of providing investors with an independent and globally consistent view of creditworthiness, based on our published criteria.”

Some analysts accused European officials of attempting to distract voters and financial markets from their difficulties in formulating an effective response to the crisis.
“EU leaders will be well advised to stop blaming ratings agencies for their own shambolic handling of the euro area crisis,” said Sony Kapoor, head of Re-Define, an economic consultancy.

The European complaints echo similar criticisms made by Washington in April, when S&P cut its outlook for US bonds in the midst of budget negotiations between the White House and congressional Republicans. At the time, senior US Treasury officials questioned the timing and accused S&P of being misinformed about the budget talks.

European officials have argued that downgrades have frequently coincided with high-profile meetings of European leaders – evidence, they believe, of agency politicisation.

(...) “The credit rating agencies are playing politics not economics,” said a senior EU official. “The timings of the downgrades are not a coincidence.”

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Portugal hits back at Moody’s downgrade

@ FT By Peter Wise in Lisbon
Portugal has hit back at Moody’s for downgrading the country’s sovereign debt to junk status, criticising the US rating agency for failing to take into account new austerity measures and a “broad political consensus” in favour of tough fiscal discipline.

The four-notch downgrade to Ba2 has dealt a blow to Portugal’s efforts to distance itself from Greece and is expected to increase the yield the country has to pay at an auction of up to €1bn ($1.4bn) of three-month treasury bills on Wednesday.
 
Portugal’s PSI equity index quickly fell 2.6 per cent and the country’s credit default swaps have hit a record of 850 basis points, up 80bp for the day. Spreads between Spanish and Italian sovereigns and Bunds are also widening, indicating contagion fears.
 
Vítor Gaspar, finance minister, said the ratings cut to below investment grade failed to reflect the unequivocal support of the main government and opposition parties for the country’s €78bn financial rescue programme. (...)

Pedro Santos Guerreiro, editor of the Jornal de Negócios business daily, said the ratings cut threatened to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, undermining the investor confidence Portugal needed to resolve its debt crisis.

The Left Bloc, a small leftwing party opposed to the bail-out, said the downgrade proved that tough austerity measures taken over the past year were not the solution to the country’s difficulties.

Moody’s said the downgrade reflected fears that Portugal would need to follow Greece in seeking a second bail-out.

Moves to involve private investors in a new rescue plan for Greece made it likely that the EU would require the same preconditions for Portugal, the agency said in a statement on Tuesday night.
This would discourage new private sector lending, decreasing the likelihood that Portugal could resume financing its debt in international markets in the second half of 2013, as envisaged in the bail-out agreement, Moody’s said.

The agency also cited “heightened concerns” that Portugal would not be able to meet the deficit-reduction targets it has agreed to in the rescue package.
This was because of the “formidable challenges” facing the new centre-right coalition government to cut spending, increase tax revenue, lift economic growth and support the banking system.

However, Mr Gaspar said the downgrade ignored the impact of an extraordinary tax on income announced last week, which was “proof of the government’s determination” to meet this year’s deficit targets by going beyond the bail-out agreement.

The one-off tax, which will require Portuguese workers to forfeit half of the extra one month’s pay they receive as a December bonus, is expected to raise more than €840m.

Mr Gaspar said the government was committed to meeting deficit-reduction targets ahead of schedule and taking additional austerity measures beyond those set out in the rescue agreement.

It would also accelerate the privatisation programme agreed with the so-called “troika” – the European Commission, IMF and European Central Bank. This would have a positive impact on the public debt and market confidence, he added.

 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/86e26194-a7a3-11e0-a312-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1RKX7ERxY